Two backup restricted free-agent bigmen's offer sheets were matched this week by teams deep in the luxury tax.
I've suspected from the start that Portland only signed Paul Millsap to an offer sheet to force Utah to unload Boozer, preferably to Chicago who would then send Hinrich to Portland to clear cap room (which would then be used by Utah to pay Millsap). Whatever goal, this was a smart move by Portland -- their worst case scenario was ending up with arguably the best backup PF in the league, though he would be substantially overpaid. Now Utah can either go deep, deep into the tax to field a team that won't contend for anything or must find a way to dump Boozer, a borderline all-star talent (still a good outcome for Portland as they weaken a division rival). I don't see Utah fielding this team as is, as as is is about $14.5 million over the luxury tax (mean they will need to pay $14.5 million to the league in addition to all their contracts), so I expect them to make the aforementioned CHI-POR-UTA trade or perhaps one sending Boozer to the Knicks, with a third team absorbing the difference in salaries (e.g. http://games.espn.go.com/nba/tradeMachine?tradeId=mtfqtw). Nevertheless, I think Utah made the right choice in matching. Millsap is a great player, and a great guy (only of those things can be said about Boozer) and will contribute for years to come, and Boozer shouldn't be that difficult to move before the trade deadline, when the tax kicks in.
The Magic, after matching Marcin Gortat, are "only" $8 million into the tax, so they could conceivably keep the overachieving backup center. Mid-level money for a top 5 backup big? Sounds pretty reasonable to me, even if he only gets around 12 minutes a game. But if they end up trading him for a 3rd PG and a weaker big, I won't blame them. Gortat is Base-Year Compensation though, which makes trading him without a third team nearly impossible (I don't think, though it's so hard to be sure with the CBA rules, that they can use their own Traded Player exceptions to facilitate the trade). Still good move, and always nice to see an owner willing to go in big to pay for a winner.
So, solid moves all around, after an iffy free agent period to this point. These GM's have shown faith in their players, now it's time for the players to vindicate them.
Saturday, July 18, 2009
Friday, July 10, 2009
Thoughts on the Four-Way Trade
* Well done by Orlando to turn Turkoglu walking into a sign-and-trade. Not only do they get some cold hard cash to help pay their substantial luxury tax, but never underestimate the value of a trade exception. If the Magic are hit with a major injury, the ability to give another team $7 million in cap relief will be invaluable.
* My problem with Turkoglu's contract isn't the amount, it's the length. He already seems to be taking a step back, with his PER dropping from 17.66 to 14.82 last season (meaning, at least by this measure, he wasn't even an average small forward last year). Hedo will be 35 before this contract is even on its last year, and I think the Raptors will be highly regretting having to commit $12 million to a 10th man at that point. On the other hand, thanks to Portland's courtship of the Turkish Michael Jordan, it was clear that Toronto couldn't have signed him on a shorter contract, and the pick up by all reports seems to have made Chris Bosh much more likely to stay (he loves the acquisition), so it may have been worth it after all. Time will tell.
* Shawn Marion, on the other hand, just seems to be overpaid. Eight-million a year for 13-8? Let's compare, shall we?
Shawn Marion: P/40 A/40 R/40
14.4 2.3 9.5
Kris Humphries: P/40 A/40 R/40
17.2 1.5 10.6
So a player included in the trade as filler and who will make only $3 million this year would average 3 more points and 1 more rebound than Marion if given the same minutes (not that Humphries is necessarily a better player, but one would think that similar production would lead to similar salaries). The fact is Marion is being paid because of everyone's memories of the Suns' great playoff runs, and not based on his actual production. Oh, and if you haven't noticed, he has a bit of an attitude problem. At least the Mavericks should be fun to watch this year...
* Another example (along with Pavlovic and Bowen) of unguaranteed money being extremely useful as trade bait. Jerry Stackhouse has an outgoing value of $7 million but can be bought out for around $2 million (which, since teams can send up to $3 million cash in trades, means the receiving team could waive him without paying a dime). I expect to see many, many more contracts with unguaranteed or partially guaranteed final years to continue to allow trades like this to occur.
* On that note, Memphis clear $4 million from their books this year by trading away Buckner and getting back Stackhouse, who will be immediately waived. Buckner was an expiring contract, so on a team not allergic to paying salary he might have come in handy at the trade deadline to pick up some MLE-level talent from a team needing cap relief -- say, Jason Maxiell if all goes to hell in Detroit this year -- but who am I kidding? It's the Grizzlies, they weren't going to spend that money so it doesn't matter.
* Toronto also received two expiring contracts, which are probably too small to put to good use. If they throw Roko in with them -- and I'm not sure if they would -- they could pick up someone making about MLE money. Just something to keep in the back of your mind.
* Overall, I'd say the winner was the Magic, who got a $7 million trade exception and cash from two teams, the loser was the Mavericks who overpaid for a fading star with an attitude problem, with an incomplete going to Toronto (you can really only judge this trade by whether it convinces Bosh to stay, and for that we'll have to wait another year). The Grizzlies broke even, shedding $4 million in salary but losing a tradeable expiring contract.
* My problem with Turkoglu's contract isn't the amount, it's the length. He already seems to be taking a step back, with his PER dropping from 17.66 to 14.82 last season (meaning, at least by this measure, he wasn't even an average small forward last year). Hedo will be 35 before this contract is even on its last year, and I think the Raptors will be highly regretting having to commit $12 million to a 10th man at that point. On the other hand, thanks to Portland's courtship of the Turkish Michael Jordan, it was clear that Toronto couldn't have signed him on a shorter contract, and the pick up by all reports seems to have made Chris Bosh much more likely to stay (he loves the acquisition), so it may have been worth it after all. Time will tell.
* Shawn Marion, on the other hand, just seems to be overpaid. Eight-million a year for 13-8? Let's compare, shall we?
Shawn Marion: P/40 A/40 R/40
14.4 2.3 9.5
Kris Humphries: P/40 A/40 R/40
17.2 1.5 10.6
So a player included in the trade as filler and who will make only $3 million this year would average 3 more points and 1 more rebound than Marion if given the same minutes (not that Humphries is necessarily a better player, but one would think that similar production would lead to similar salaries). The fact is Marion is being paid because of everyone's memories of the Suns' great playoff runs, and not based on his actual production. Oh, and if you haven't noticed, he has a bit of an attitude problem. At least the Mavericks should be fun to watch this year...
* Another example (along with Pavlovic and Bowen) of unguaranteed money being extremely useful as trade bait. Jerry Stackhouse has an outgoing value of $7 million but can be bought out for around $2 million (which, since teams can send up to $3 million cash in trades, means the receiving team could waive him without paying a dime). I expect to see many, many more contracts with unguaranteed or partially guaranteed final years to continue to allow trades like this to occur.
* On that note, Memphis clear $4 million from their books this year by trading away Buckner and getting back Stackhouse, who will be immediately waived. Buckner was an expiring contract, so on a team not allergic to paying salary he might have come in handy at the trade deadline to pick up some MLE-level talent from a team needing cap relief -- say, Jason Maxiell if all goes to hell in Detroit this year -- but who am I kidding? It's the Grizzlies, they weren't going to spend that money so it doesn't matter.
* Toronto also received two expiring contracts, which are probably too small to put to good use. If they throw Roko in with them -- and I'm not sure if they would -- they could pick up someone making about MLE money. Just something to keep in the back of your mind.
* Overall, I'd say the winner was the Magic, who got a $7 million trade exception and cash from two teams, the loser was the Mavericks who overpaid for a fading star with an attitude problem, with an incomplete going to Toronto (you can really only judge this trade by whether it convinces Bosh to stay, and for that we'll have to wait another year). The Grizzlies broke even, shedding $4 million in salary but losing a tradeable expiring contract.
Sunday, June 28, 2009
Joe Dumars Dooms the Pistons
This has certainly been a more exciting-than-expected offseason, what with the league-altering moves of the Spurs, Magic and Cavs, as well as some big name free agents finding new teams. The wisdom of some of the moves (looking at you, Toronto) can be doubted, but I'd say it's been a pretty solid couple of weeks.
And then there's the Pistons. I've generally been on board with Dumar's moves up until this point -- he decided (rightly, in my opinion) that Detroit's extraordinary run was about over, and that this was the last chance to sell high on its assets. The move was pretty low-risk: Either Iverson was going to fit in, lead the team to another exciting playoff run, and then become $20 million of capspace, or he was going to become $20 million in capspace. In the end, Dumars just ended up with the latter, but in this market that kind of capspace can get you pretty far. Better yet, Detroit had a half-decent young core to build around and two very tradeable (if a little overvalued) contracts in Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince.
But when confronted with a dream offer, Dumars turned it down. The Celtics offered another giant expiring contract ($20 million for Ray Allen), and a point-guard to build around, for two overpaid players (Prince and Hamilton) and, fatally, Rodney Stuckey. Now, I like Stuckey as much as the next guy... he works hard, plays physical and is fearless on the court. But his absolute ceiling is about where Rondo is now; is there really any possibility Stuckey is going to develop, suddenly, into a championship-level point guard? And Rondo already has a championship, last year, and that was before turning into a playoff triple-double machine. I don't see him ever leading a team himself, but he's already proved he can be a key-cog in a contender. This trade accomplishes everything the Pistons could've wanted, giving them a mound of capspace, young talent, and a release from any long-term contracts. And yet, Dumars didn't even bother to negotiate with Ainge himself, all because of his attachment to some B-level prospect in Stuckey.
So now, after the signings of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, the Pistons are stuck in some bizarre middle ground between rebuilding and contending. In fact, since they dumped Amir Johnson, who at least had some upside, but kept Hamilton and Prince, I have to say they're leaning towards contending. But does anyone, including Joe Dumars, really think a lineup of Stuckey-Hamilton-Prince-Villanueva-Kwame Brown (if only in my dreams) is destined for anything more than a first round exit, for now and until Hamilton and Prince come off the books? Is it even better than if they had taken the Rondo deal and maybe swung a sign-and-trade with McDyess to the Blazers, taking back someone with some upside like Martell Webster?
The fact is the Pistons could've been set. They would chill in the basement this year, giving their rookies plenty of playtime, picked up a high lottery pick in the stacked 2010 draft, had limitless cap space to throw at whoever they wanted for the next couple years, and could've easily been back in contention by 2011. Instead, they are destined for mediocrity, not bad enough to pick up a star worth building around in the draft but not good enough to seriously worry the Cavs, Celts or Magic. Joe Dumars has leveraged their future, for no good reason, and will have to live with his decisions this offseason until 2015, when Ben Gordon will receive his last check from the Pistons for a bit over $10 million.
And then there's the Pistons. I've generally been on board with Dumar's moves up until this point -- he decided (rightly, in my opinion) that Detroit's extraordinary run was about over, and that this was the last chance to sell high on its assets. The move was pretty low-risk: Either Iverson was going to fit in, lead the team to another exciting playoff run, and then become $20 million of capspace, or he was going to become $20 million in capspace. In the end, Dumars just ended up with the latter, but in this market that kind of capspace can get you pretty far. Better yet, Detroit had a half-decent young core to build around and two very tradeable (if a little overvalued) contracts in Rip Hamilton and Tayshaun Prince.
But when confronted with a dream offer, Dumars turned it down. The Celtics offered another giant expiring contract ($20 million for Ray Allen), and a point-guard to build around, for two overpaid players (Prince and Hamilton) and, fatally, Rodney Stuckey. Now, I like Stuckey as much as the next guy... he works hard, plays physical and is fearless on the court. But his absolute ceiling is about where Rondo is now; is there really any possibility Stuckey is going to develop, suddenly, into a championship-level point guard? And Rondo already has a championship, last year, and that was before turning into a playoff triple-double machine. I don't see him ever leading a team himself, but he's already proved he can be a key-cog in a contender. This trade accomplishes everything the Pistons could've wanted, giving them a mound of capspace, young talent, and a release from any long-term contracts. And yet, Dumars didn't even bother to negotiate with Ainge himself, all because of his attachment to some B-level prospect in Stuckey.
So now, after the signings of Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva, the Pistons are stuck in some bizarre middle ground between rebuilding and contending. In fact, since they dumped Amir Johnson, who at least had some upside, but kept Hamilton and Prince, I have to say they're leaning towards contending. But does anyone, including Joe Dumars, really think a lineup of Stuckey-Hamilton-Prince-Villanueva-Kwame Brown (if only in my dreams) is destined for anything more than a first round exit, for now and until Hamilton and Prince come off the books? Is it even better than if they had taken the Rondo deal and maybe swung a sign-and-trade with McDyess to the Blazers, taking back someone with some upside like Martell Webster?
The fact is the Pistons could've been set. They would chill in the basement this year, giving their rookies plenty of playtime, picked up a high lottery pick in the stacked 2010 draft, had limitless cap space to throw at whoever they wanted for the next couple years, and could've easily been back in contention by 2011. Instead, they are destined for mediocrity, not bad enough to pick up a star worth building around in the draft but not good enough to seriously worry the Cavs, Celts or Magic. Joe Dumars has leveraged their future, for no good reason, and will have to live with his decisions this offseason until 2015, when Ben Gordon will receive his last check from the Pistons for a bit over $10 million.
Thursday, August 2, 2007
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