Friday, July 10, 2009

Thoughts on the Four-Way Trade

* Well done by Orlando to turn Turkoglu walking into a sign-and-trade. Not only do they get some cold hard cash to help pay their substantial luxury tax, but never underestimate the value of a trade exception. If the Magic are hit with a major injury, the ability to give another team $7 million in cap relief will be invaluable.

* My problem with Turkoglu's contract isn't the amount, it's the length. He already seems to be taking a step back, with his PER dropping from 17.66 to 14.82 last season (meaning, at least by this measure, he wasn't even an average small forward last year). Hedo will be 35 before this contract is even on its last year, and I think the Raptors will be highly regretting having to commit $12 million to a 10th man at that point. On the other hand, thanks to Portland's courtship of the Turkish Michael Jordan, it was clear that Toronto couldn't have signed him on a shorter contract, and the pick up by all reports seems to have made Chris Bosh much more likely to stay (he loves the acquisition), so it may have been worth it after all. Time will tell.

* Shawn Marion, on the other hand, just seems to be overpaid. Eight-million a year for 13-8? Let's compare, shall we?

Shawn Marion: P/40 A/40 R/40
14.4 2.3 9.5

Kris Humphries: P/40 A/40 R/40
17.2 1.5 10.6

So a player included in the trade as filler and who will make only $3 million this year would average 3 more points and 1 more rebound than Marion if given the same minutes (not that Humphries is necessarily a better player, but one would think that similar production would lead to similar salaries). The fact is Marion is being paid because of everyone's memories of the Suns' great playoff runs, and not based on his actual production. Oh, and if you haven't noticed, he has a bit of an attitude problem. At least the Mavericks should be fun to watch this year...

* Another example (along with Pavlovic and Bowen) of unguaranteed money being extremely useful as trade bait. Jerry Stackhouse has an outgoing value of $7 million but can be bought out for around $2 million (which, since teams can send up to $3 million cash in trades, means the receiving team could waive him without paying a dime). I expect to see many, many more contracts with unguaranteed or partially guaranteed final years to continue to allow trades like this to occur.

* On that note, Memphis clear $4 million from their books this year by trading away Buckner and getting back Stackhouse, who will be immediately waived. Buckner was an expiring contract, so on a team not allergic to paying salary he might have come in handy at the trade deadline to pick up some MLE-level talent from a team needing cap relief -- say, Jason Maxiell if all goes to hell in Detroit this year -- but who am I kidding? It's the Grizzlies, they weren't going to spend that money so it doesn't matter.

* Toronto also received two expiring contracts, which are probably too small to put to good use. If they throw Roko in with them -- and I'm not sure if they would -- they could pick up someone making about MLE money. Just something to keep in the back of your mind.

* Overall, I'd say the winner was the Magic, who got a $7 million trade exception and cash from two teams, the loser was the Mavericks who overpaid for a fading star with an attitude problem, with an incomplete going to Toronto (you can really only judge this trade by whether it convinces Bosh to stay, and for that we'll have to wait another year). The Grizzlies broke even, shedding $4 million in salary but losing a tradeable expiring contract.

No comments:

Post a Comment